One may view the El Paso election results here and the national and state election results here. There are several surprises among the election results, which we explain below.
A RECORD NUMBER OF EL PASOANS VOTED FOR REPUBLICANS
One of the most stunning facts coming out of yesterday’s election is how many El Pasoans voted for Republicans, spelling serious trouble for the Democratic Party. This is the culmination of a trend that began almost a decade ago.
In 2016, only 55,512 voters (25.71%) cast ballots for Donald Trump. In 2020, Trump got 84,331 votes (31.56%) but in this election he got 104,966 votes (41.73%). Thus, almost twice as many El Pasoans cast votes for Trump in 2024 as they did in 2016.
Similarly, in 2018 Ted Cruz got 50,943 votes (25.02%) but in 2024 got 92,853 votes (37.95%).
In 2020 Irene Armendariz-Jackson, in her run for the 16th Congressional District, got 84,006 votes (35.28%) while Veronica Escobar got 154,108 votes (64.72%). But in this election, Armendariz-Jackson got 89,146 votes (40.40%) vs. 131,144 votes (59.43%) for Escobar.
In the other local federal race, for the 23rd Congressional District, Republican Tony Gonzalez got 51.52% of the vote and held on to his seat.
At the State level, the race for Representative of District 74 was the only competitive election, and Republican Robert Garza mustered 42.67% of the vote vs. Eddie Morales Jr. Democratic state reps Mary Gonzalez, Vince Perez, Joe Moody, and Claudia Ordaz were unchallenged, as was our Democratic State Senator, César Blanco.
In the race for State Board of Education District 1, Republican Michael Stevens got 40.45% of the vote against Gustavo Reveles, the intransigent Director of Communications of Canutillo ISD who can’t seem to process a basic open records request without prodding from state regulators.
At the County level, Democratic tax-and-spend candidate Jackie Michelle Butler won the race for Commissioner of Precinct 1 with 54.72% of the vote, so she gets to move from Carlos Leon’s front office into the big chair behind the desk while pocketing the $133,500 salary he created for himself.
Butler’s scandal-plagued Republican challenger Claudia Lizette Rodriguez got 38.47% of the vote in spite of raising only $2,525 (including $500 from Dee Margo) and doing no work. Apparently, just having an “R” next to her name was enough to secure a significant chunk of the vote. Libertarian Ryan Woodcraft worked ten times as hard but earned only 6.81% of the vote, though he is clearly the most qualified.
The incumbent Commissioner of Precinct 3, Iliana Holguin, faced no Republican opponent in her bid for reelection.
In the race for District Attorney, incumbent Bill Hicks got 95,777 votes (42.73%) against Democratic challenger James Montoya, who is only 11 years out of law school. We were sorry to see Mr. Hicks lose, given his impressive resume and long record of success.
In the race for County Sheriff, Republican Minerva Torres-Shelton got 94,901 votes (40.86%) vs. Escobar candidate Oscar Ugarte, who carpet-bombed El Paso with ugly yellow signs, which evidently convinced a majority of voters that he is somehow qualified.
VOTERS APPROVE $551,625,000 IN GENERAL OBLIGATION BONDS
In usual fashion, El Paso voters approved County Proposition A ($95,615,000 for parks and recreation), Proposition B ($26,700,000 for Medical Examiner facilities), and Proposition E ($32,710,000 for the Animal Shelter). They also approved the UMC hospital bond in the amount of $396,600,000.
Thus the voters approved $551,625,000 in general obligation bonds, which will cost somewhere in the neighborhood of $800,000,000 in principal and interest, increasing our total community debt to about $11.1 billion.
But the voters rejected County Proposition C ($63,285,000 for the County courthouse and subcourthouses) and Proposition D ($105,485,000 for the County Coliseum). The Coliseum could have been renovated for only $65 million but Commissioner Stout decided to add an extra $40 million, contributing to the defeat of the proposition by only 712 votes.
MAYORAL RACE
Renard Johnson, who is a tool for the big developers and their bankers and attorneys, spent over $800,000 on his mayoral campaign and got only 32.48% of the vote, while Brian Kennedy got 24.22% after spending less than a third of that amount.
Cassandra Hernandez came in a distant third with 10.34% of the vote, followed by Steven Winters (8.61%), Isabel Salcido (7.41%), Marco Antonio Contreras (6.49%), Elizabeth Cordova (5.86%), and Ben Mendoza (4.60%).
We are relieved that Gassandra will no longer plague our City government and that we only have to suffer her for another 62 days before her term ends. Frankly, we hope to never see her run for office again.
Johnson and Kennedy will face off in the December runoff election, when there will be a much smaller number of voters and a completely different dynamic. We are hopeful Kennedy will prevail since he is the only one between the two men who is qualified for the position and who did not have a business partner who was federally indicted in a $3 million Ponzi scheme.
SPECIAL ELECTION, CITY DISTRICT 1
Alejandra “Enron” Chavez got 10,592 votes (37.38%), with Monica Reyes coming in second place with 7,715 votes (27.23%). Tom Handy (20.73%) and Sam Armijo (14.66%) are both staunch fiscal conservatives and we are hopeful they will endorse Reyes, who will face Chavez in the runoff election next month. Whereas Chavez is powered entirely by wads of cash from the elites and stands only for their financial interests, Reyes is a woman of moral conviction who will put the taxpayers first.
CITY DISTRICT 2
Unfortunately for El Paso, Josh “vendido” Acevedo, who received large checks from the Oligarchs in the run-up to the election, got 10,771 votes (61.38%) and defeated Isabel Ceballos Otten, who has ten times his financial acumen and experience and has never been for sale.
CITY DISTRICT 3
Jose Rodriguez is a joke of a candidate, conflating his real estate business page with his campaign page in a cynical bid to sell more houses. He never filed any campaign finance reports and, as far as we can tell, did no campaigning. Yet because he has the same name as the popular former Democratic State Senator, he was able to win 5,856 votes (27%), besting his four opponents. This can only happen in El Paso…
The Oligarchy candidate Deanna Maldonado-Rocha came in second with 4,815 votes (22.20%), followed by the progressive candidate Kenneth Bell (20.30%), Fabiola Arellano (18.71%), and Jesse Romero (11.80%). Of these, Arellano is by far the most qualified and we are sorry she lost. It seems all but certain that Maldonado-Rocha will win the runoff and become the next Cassandra Hernandez.
CITY DISTRICT 4
Incumbent Joe Molinar is one of the most fiscally conservative representatives ever to serve on City Council and has voted correctly nearly every time. He got 8,111 votes (38.40%) compared to Oligarchy candidate Cynthia Boyar Trejo (28.06%) and will face her in a runoff. She was trailed by MAGA-Republican-turned-woke-Democrat Wesley Lawrence (18.42%) and Dorothy “Sissy” Byrd (15.21%).
CITY DISTRICT 5
Ivan Niño, who was criminally investigated as a result of his conduct while working for El Paso County in 2013-2019, is the 33-year-old Legislative Aide to tax-and-spend City Rep. Isabel Salcido. There is no question but that Niño will be exactly like Salcido in his spending priorities and will vote to raise our taxes repeatedly. He came in first yesterday with 6,988 votes (39.11%).
Fiscal conservative Amanda Cunningham came in second with 4,524 votes (25.32%) and will face Niño in the runoff. She was trailed by our endorsee Felix Muñoz (20.03%), Tamara Davis (8.78%) and Sean “Kowalski” Orr (6.76%). Cunningham will need much support if she is to overcome Niño.
CITY DISTRICT 7
Former City Rep. Lily Limón got 8,738 votes (41.18%) and will face YISD Trustee Chris Hernandez (21.96%) in the runoff. The two Oligarchy candidates, Fabiola Campos Lopez (21.11%) and Alan “demolish the barrios” Serna (15.75%), were eliminated yesterday. We have endorsed Limón because of her strong commitment to restraining spending and taxation.
THE ARENA WAS KILLED DEAD
Thankfully, the voters supported Special Election Proposition A with 97,463 votes (55.54%), defunding the ill-fated downtown arena and putting the project out of its misery once and for all, saving the taxpayers at least a half-billion dollars. If the big developers want a downtown arena so badly and are so convinced it would be profitable, let them build it themselves at their own expense and in a place that will not destroy any historic buildings or displace anyone from their homes.
SUMMARY
We believe there is a 75% chance that after the runoff at least five members of City Council (plus the Mayor) will be fiscally conservative and opposed to large debt issuances and tax increases. If the runoff goes as hoped, we will continue to have excellent City leadership at least through FY 2026.
The County remains firmly in the hands of tax-and-spend progressives, with only Commissioner Iliana Holguin standing with the taxpayers. We can already predict that in 2026 Judge Samaniego will be voted out of office along with Commissioners Sergio Coronado and David Stout. There are already several prospective candidates for office who would make perfect replacements. More on this later..
The State Delegation consists of six Democrats and is 100% controlled by the big developers and their allies. There is no reason to expect this will change anytime soon. However, the recent surge in Republican voters might mean that there will be serious Republican challengers to the incumbents next election cycle.
We will soon publish a list of our endorsements for the December runoff election.